TCO Intelligence Group

Chinese leader instructed to “quickly bring the armed forces to world-class standards”

July 24, 2023 at 17: 15

Author: Konstantin Volkov

Reprint From NEWS.ru

The power of the People’s Liberation Army of China (PLA) is being built up “at an unsurpassed speed.” This was stated by the head of the Indo-Pacific Command of the US Armed Forces, Admiral John Aquilino, speaking at the Aspen Security Forum in the United States. According to him, Beijing is developing “not only hypersonic missiles, but all the capabilities — at sea, in the air, in space.” In early March, Chinese President Xi Jinping called for a meeting of the PLA to ” quickly bring the armed forces to world-class standards.” Why China is developing the army at an accelerated pace, what it is preparing for — in the material NEWS.ru.

What “Chinese threat” did the US Admiral talk about

The administration of US President Joe Biden called the Indo-Pacific region the most likely “theater of military operations”, the interaction of the US armed forces and the PLA — a “temporary problem” that should determine the Pentagon’s military planning.

“In China, the narrative of’ national revival ‘ supports the country’s growth and financial sustainability, which allows for increased taxation despite slowing economic growth. This means that Beijing is able to support military spending in the long term, “political scientists Roselle Capella Zielinski and Samuel Gerst, authors of an article in the Texas National Security Observer, believe.

Meanwhile, in the United States, in their opinion, to continue competition with China, it will be necessary to raise taxes and take other unpopular measures, which can hit the ratio of public debt to GDP and lead to an increase in economic and social problems. In 2023, US sovereign debt reached 98% of GDP. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that debt will increase to 118% of GDP by 2033 and to 195% in 2053, or more than $100 trillion.

Where can the US-China arms race lead?

“The arms race between the US and China is already underway, and it can really lead to problems for Washington,” he said. NEWS.ru Vasily Kashin, Director of the HSE Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies. — While China is focused militarily on competing almost exclusively with America, the United States is forced to work in many areas at once. At the same time, the situation in the United States has been alarming for several years — back in the 2000s, they began to talk about”imperial overstrain” America”.

According to the expert, if the United States competed in the arms race only with China, it would survive it. “But China is an addition to all other areas: Russia, Iran, North Korea, the Middle East. If Washington is going to develop its rivalry with China, it needs to cut spending in other areas and rely more on its allies in Asia. However, so far the United States has failed to reduce its spending, ” Kashin said.

Why does China need such a powerful army

It is believedthat Beijing is preparing an army to attack Taiwan. “We will continue to strive for peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity and maximum effort, but we have never promised to renounce the use of force and reserve the opportunity to take all necessary measures,” Xi said in his report to the XX National Congress of the CPC in October 2022.

Director of the ISAA MSU Alexey Maslov suggested in an interview with NEWS.ru that the PRC has a more global task — the country is trying to change its image, become a powerful military power, and not just an economic giant.

As Vasily Kashin noted, China is bringing its armed forces in line with the scale of the country. “Even France, which is in every respect weaker than China, has its own global strategy — Indo-Pacific. And why can’t Beijing develop its own strategies and support them by modernizing the army? ” the expert believes.

According to him, there is a widespread narrative that China does not know how to fight, but this is not so.

“Throughout history, China has pursued an active military policy,” says Kashin. — For example, from the middle of the XVII to the beginning of the XVIII century, it increased its territory by military means almost twice and managed to hold on to what it had conquered. And in the period 1949-1989, the PRC used military force more often than the USSR (for example, the events in Tibet in 1950-1951, the Sino-Indian border War of 1962, a number of border conflicts with the USSR in 1969, the war with Vietnam in 1979, etc. — NEWS.ru). Another thing is that then, during during the time of reforms, all forces were thrown at increasing GDP. Now the situation is changing.”

What is the Chinese army?

The PLA is the first largest in the world, with a total of about 2 million people, of which about 975,000 are military personnel of combat units. For comparison, the second army in the world is India, with 1.46 million people, followed by the United States with 1.39 million, North Korea with 1.28 million and the Russian Federation with 1.15 million, all numbers excluding reserves.

According to the index of total military power, which is calculated every year by the American website Global Firepower, the PLA ranks third, behind the United States and Russia, but ahead of India and the United Kingdom.

The Chinese Navy ranks first in the world in terms of numbers with 355 ships and submarines (nuclear and diesel-electric). They are equipped with various types of missiles, including intercontinental and hypersonic (the US Navy has less than 300 ships and submarines of all classes). Two aircraft carriers, the Shandong and Liaoning (the former Soviet aircraft carrier Varyag), were also commissioned. Since 2017, the PLA has a military base with a Naval logistics center in Djibouti (East Africa).

The Chinese Air Force ranks third in the world (second only to the United States and Russia) — they have more than 2,800 aircraft and helicopters, not counting training vehicles and drones. In 2019, China announced the appearance of the H-6N aircraft, carrying nuclear warheads and capable of refueling in the air.

The missile forces of the People’s Republic of China have intercontinental ballistic missiles, including those with several warheads, some of which are independently guided. Also in service are mobile medium-range ballistic missiles DF-26, which can be equipped with both conventional and nuclear warheads.

Also in 2020, the PLA began to supply hypersonic gliding vehicles DF-17, capable of carrying ballistic missiles. The number of nuclear warheads in China is still significantly less than that of the United States and the Russian Federation, and is, according to various estimates, 200-400 units. However, experts admit that in the near future Beijing may increase their number.

Strategic Support Forces combine units that specialize in cyber warfare, electronic intelligence, military space operations, and psychological operations.

How the PLA is being reformed

Reforms in the Chinese army began at the end of 2012, immediately after the current leader of China, Xi Jinping, came to power. Modernization has led to the largest restructuring of the PLA in recent decades, writes the main PLA publication China Military.

“The highest governing bodies were reallocated up to the Central Military Commission (the highest state body of the People’s Republic of China for the leadership of the Armed Forces. — NEWS.ru) to optimize the command chain. Regional control systems were reorganized to increase their combat capabilities in joint operations. Army groups and institutions were brought together to improve efficiency. There are also new high-tech units to prepare for operations in non-traditional areas, such as cyberspace,” the publication explains.

At the end of 2015, the PLA Ground Forces Headquarters, the PLA Missile Forces, and the PLA Strategic Support Force were established.

In January 2016, the four top departments of the Chinese army-the General Staff, political administration, logistics and weapons-were disbanded, and their functions were transferred to 15 new agencies under the direct control of the Central Military Commission.

During the reform, the size of the Chinese army was reduced by 300 thousand people, and this was due to” non-combat personnel”, while the number of employees in the navy and in the missile forces increased.

According to Shao Dan of the PLA Academy of Military Sciences, “the previous military system, which relied heavily on ground forces, was abolished, and instead new areas were strengthened: strategic early warning, long-range sea defense, strikes on long-range approaches, deployment of strategic forces, and information support.”

As Chinese military experts explain, the PLA must become stronger, more integrated and more flexible in order to always be able to win modern wars. Since 2012, China has increased its annual defense budget by an average of 7% per year. In 2023, Beijing announced a defense budget of $230 billion, which is 7.2% more than in the previous year. China’s actual military spending, according to some estimates, may be 30-40% higher.

What exactly is China modernizing

US Defense experts wrotethat China plans to build a navy, possibly including nuclear aircraft carriers and naval bases abroad. Also in the future, it is planned to develop the Navy’s expeditionary capabilities and increase investment in a larger and more diversified nuclear arsenal. In particular, Beijing plans to expand its nuclear forces and have up to 700 nuclear warheads by 2027.

There are plans to build fast neutron reactors, which should provide the necessary reserves of weapons-grade plutonium. China already has a “nuclear triad”: ICBMs, strategic aircraft and nuclear-powered missile submarines.

China is also actively working on new types of weapons such as hypersonic missiles and pays great attention to all types of electronic intelligence and combat, cyber warfare, the use of space satellites, and psychological operations. According to some reports, the PRC may develop chemical and bacteriological weapons, but there is no official confirmation of this.

The PLA faces the task of accelerating the mechanization and informatization of the armed forces by 2027, while paying attention to its”intellectualization”. This means not only improving the level of training of military personnel, but also the use of artificial intelligence. And by 2049, the PLA should become a “world-class army”. It is planned that this will happen simultaneously with the transformation of China into a “great socialist country”.